Tightly contested rematch looms as Biden struggles to replicate success

• 10 days away from the Iowa caucus and 10 months from the general election, we take an early look at a potential Biden versus Trump rematch.

• Early look at potential Biden vs. Trump rematch.

• Electoral math: 270 votes needed to win.

joe biden media talk .

AP

Both candidates would need to capture the coveted 270 electoral votes to secure the White House. This analysis is based on the current electoral math, with all the usual caveats that apply in such early stages.

In the previous road to the 2020 election, Joe Biden emerged victorious with 306 electoral votes, while Donald Trump secured 232. However, if we look at the current breakdown of states, Trump appears to have a slight advantage. He stands at 272 electoral votes, with several states solidly in his corner or leaning toward him. On the other hand, Biden currently sits at 225 electoral votes, relying on blue states firmly in his direction or leaning his way.

Yet, it is important to note that there are several toss-up states marked in yellow, which could sway the outcome of the race. These states are expected to play a crucial role in determining the final winner. Thus, the result is likely to be another extraordinarily close presidential race, probably coming down to six or seven key states.

At the start of this year, Biden is struggling to recreate his victorious coalition that secured his electoral win in 2020. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, as a potential Republican nominee, remains a formidable contender for a return to the White House.

A shift in the current snapshot could occur if states previously won by Biden, such as Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada, revert to their usual toss-up status. If this were to happen, Trump's electoral count could drop below the necessary 270, potentially shifting the balance in Biden's favor.

However, at present, Biden needs to regain states currently leaning toward Trump and hold onto all the toss-up states. He must strategically secure at least one state that is currently leaning in Trump's direction but was won by Biden in 2020.

In conclusion, with the race tight and only a handful of states determining the winner, the road to the 2024 election promises to be an exhilarating and closely contested battle. Both Biden and Trump remain strong contenders, and the outcome will likely come down to who can successfully rally their base and appeal to the swing states.