Tensions Persist as Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Stalls Peace Negotiations

• U.S. and Mideast mediators optimistic on ceasefire and hostage release deal.

• Israeli PM Netanyahu rejects Hamas demands, gap between two sides remains.

• War began with Hamas assault into Israel, resulting in casualties and hostages.

Palestinians bury the bodies of people who were killed in fighting with Israel and returned to Gaza by the Israeli military, during a mass funeral in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024. (AP Pho

AP

In recent days, there has been optimism among U.S. and Mideast mediators that a two-month cease-fire in Gaza and the release of over 100 hostages held by Hamas were within reach. However, these hopes were dashed on Tuesday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas' main demands. This rejection indicates that there is still a significant gap between the two sides.

The conflict began when Hamas launched an assault into Israel on October 7th, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and the abduction of approximately 250 individuals. During a weeklong November cease-fire, nearly half of the hostages were released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israel's offensive has claimed the lives of over 26,700 Palestinians, according to the Health Ministry in Gaza, with a lack of differentiation between civilians and combatants. The United Nations reports that 85% of Gaza's population of 2.3 million people have been displaced from their homes, and around 25% of the population is currently facing starvation.

The repercussions of this war have extended beyond the immediate region, with Iran-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen launching attacks against Israeli and U.S. targets in support of the Palestinians. This has led to retaliatory actions and raises concerns about the potential for a larger regional conflict.

Let's take a closer look at the perspectives of each party involved in the conflict and their stance on ending the ongoing hostilities.

ISRAEL'S NETANYAHU SEEKS 'TOTAL VICTORY'

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently expressed his determination to continue the war until Hamas' military and governing capabilities have been destroyed, and all hostages have been returned. However, these goals have become increasingly elusive, causing anxiety among many Israelis who believe they may be mutually exclusive. Netanyahu's recent statement, declaring that Israel will not withdraw its military from Gaza or release thousands of terrorists, seems to rule out any agreement with Hamas. Nevertheless, some speculate that this stance could be a strategic maneuver to strengthen Israel's position in the ongoing indirect talks.

Netanyahu is facing mounting pressure from the families of the hostages and the wider public to reach a deal with Hamas and bring the captives home. However, he also faces the challenge of maintaining his governing coalition, which is dominated by ultranationalist hard-liners opposed to any deal perceived as being too lenient towards Hamas. It's worth noting that Israel's military has only managed to successfully rescue one hostage, and there have been reports of hostages being killed in airstrikes or during failed rescue operations.

HAMAS WANTS THE WAR TO END

Hamas, on the other hand, insists that the war can only be brought to an end if Israel ends its offensive and withdraws from Gaza. They seek a broader agreement that encompasses a long-term truce, reconstruction efforts, and the release of all Hamas-affiliated prisoners. Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, emphasized on Tuesday that their priority is the 'full withdrawal' of Israeli forces from Gaza. Additionally, they demand the lifting of the Israeli-Egyptian blockade on the territory.

Hamas is believed to be holding the remaining hostages in heavily guarded tunnels deep underground, potentially using them as human shields for their leaders or as bargaining chips for the release of Palestinian prisoners. If Hamas were to release the hostages without ending the war, they would risk facing a more intense Israeli offensive once any cease-fire agreement expires. On the other hand, securing a long-term cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of thousands of prisoners would be seen as a victory by their own supporters.

MEDIATORS SEEK MIDDLE GROUND

The United States, a key ally of Israel, has been providing crucial military aid throughout the offensive. While supporting Israel's goals of releasing all hostages and ensuring Hamas cannot pose a threat in the future, the Biden administration also has a strong interest in de-escalating the conflict due to its impact on regional stability and internal divisions among Democratic voters in an election year.

Arab countries, particularly Egypt and Qatar, have been advocating for a cease-fire since the early stages of the war due to concerns about broader instability in the region. U.S. and Arab mediators are now seeking a middle ground that involves the release of hostages in stages over a two-month period in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Additionally, they aim to facilitate the delivery of much-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces. This two-month respite could provide an opportunity to negotiate a larger agreement that addresses the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There have been discussions among U.S. and Arab diplomats concerning a potential grand bargain. This scenario involves Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel, along with other Arab countries and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority aiding in the reconstruction and governance of Gaza. In return, there would be a credible path towards the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. However, both Netanyahu and Hamas have dismissed this notion, as the Israeli government opposes Palestinian statehood while Hamas refuses to recognize Israel.

As the conflict in Gaza continues, the possibility of a resolution remains uncertain. The rejection of key demands by both Israel and Hamas highlights the significant differences that still need to be bridged. The involvement of international mediators adds a glimmer of hope, as they seek a middle ground and strive for a temporary cease-fire. However, the path to a lasting peace agreement remains challenging, requiring difficult compromises from both sides.