White House plans to respond to Iran drone attacks strategically

• Relentless attacks in the Middle East with no deterrence.

• Deterrence requires communication, capability, and credibility.

• Capability is the only aspect currently present.

White house A general view of the White House in Washington

Reuters

The White House is currently considering its response to the recent Iran-backed drone attack, with the goal of taking action against Iran while avoiding a wider conflict. Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor to Vice President Mike Pence, shared his perspective on the matter.

According to General Kellogg, the attacks in the Middle East have been relentless, with over 166 incidents occurring without deterrence. He explained that deterrence consists of three key elements: communications, capability, and credibility. Currently, the United States only possesses capability, while the other two factors are lacking.

General Kellogg suggested that a campaign for target striking may begin soon, potentially lasting from tomorrow through Thursday and Friday. He stated that ideally, tier one targets, which would include key Iranian leaders like Ismail Ghani and Supreme Leader Khamenei, should be hit. However, considering the sensitive nature of such targets, it is more likely that tier two and tier three targets will be attacked. These could involve strikes on targets in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria.

While General Kellogg believes that the United States has the capability to carry out such attacks, he expressed concerns about credibility. He argued that the previous lack of deterrence might undermine the credibility of any subsequent action. He mentioned that President Biden has already made a decision regarding what he wants to do, and the upcoming window for decision-making will determine the course of action.

Questioning the delay in responding to previous attacks, General Kellogg affirmed that deterrence could have been established earlier. However, he argued that there is a risk-averse approach within the administration, as there is fear of escalating the situation into a larger war. He cited a past example from 1988 when President Ronald Reagan sunk half of Iran's navy in response to an attack on a frigate, emphasizing the need for decisive action.

The White House has acknowledged its responsibility in responding to the recent attack, expressing that they will act at a time and manner of their choosing. General Kellogg's insights shed light on the administration's considerations and the importance of establishing deterrence in the face of ongoing threats.

As the situation continues to unfold, the White House's response will be closely scrutinized, particularly in light of previous attacks and the loss of three American service members. The United States aims to address Iran's actions effectively while minimizing the risk of further escalation and potential wider conflict in the Middle East.